Cotton prices were moving up in mid-September. Nevertheless, despite the low supply at this end-of-the-harvesting period, quotes resumed decreasing since September 18, pressed by the export parity. However, the parity resumed moving up in late September, affected by concerns with the development of crops in the United States and the supply reduction in China.
The export parity increase, in turn, underpinned cotton quotes in the domestic market. Therefore, after accumulating a monthly decrease of 3.1% until Sept. 24, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for cotton type 41-4 recovered part of losses and closed September with a slight decrease of 1.12%, closing at 2.1356 reais (0.9637 dollar) per pound on Sept. 30.
Brazilian producers are still focused on the end of the cotton ginning of the 2012/13 season – the harvesting is nearing the end in Brazil. Sellers are focused on the possibility of new international trades, due to the increase of export parity.
International prices have been hitting the highest levels in more than one month; this fact along with firm dollar quotes are leading trading companies to be less flexible regarding quotes. In spite of that, the domestic liquidity was lower in late September, given that purchasers have been acting carefully.
Conab data released in late September indicated that the Brazilian cotton production may total 1.593 million tons in the 2013/14 season – it can reach 1.66 million tons –, a result of the planting of more than 1.1 million hectares.
The domestic consumption is estimated at 920 thousand tons, which, if confirmed, might be the fourth highest in four crops. Exports may total 920 thousand tons, moving up compared to the current season, but way lower than in 2012. Ending stocks are forecasted by Conab at more than 500 thousand tons in late 2014, below 2008 stocks (675 thousand tons) and 2011 (521.7 thousand tons).
Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA)
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